PREVIEW: Craill & Walker on the Great Race
IT’S GREAT RACE WEEK, so need we say more?
TRT is back with our regular Bathurst preview but, in a sign of the times (both economically and in terms of everyone just being super-busy), it’s editors Craill & Walker answering the key questions.
What do you think? Feel free to jump on our socials and ask yourself these questions in the comments section!
Who is a smokey who will overperform in the race?
CRAILL: BRYCE Fullwood and Jayln Robotham represent very good value for money when it comes to a result this year. Performed strongly at Sandown, both have solid priors at Mount Panorama and when coupled with BJR’s strategic expertise they should prove a strong combination. They might not qualify up front, but if at the end of 161 laps you look at the results and find the pink machine in fifth or sixth and go ‘how did that happen?’, remember you read it here first.
WALKER: THEY finished fifth at Sandown, so are Lowndes and Murray in the Supercheap Wildcard even a smokey? They will be out to make amends from gearshift-gate in 2023. Lowndes is brilliant at Bathurst, Murray has a point to prove.
Who will be a surprise addition to the Top Ten Shootout?
CRAILL: GEN THREE Qualifying generally means there’s little surprises when it comes to qualifying. Would James Courtney making the shootout be a surprise? Not really. Jaxon Evans making the shootout would be a surprise, so I’ll go the SCT Logistics Camaro based on the Kiwi’s priors and strong record in GT machinery on the Mountain.
WALKER: FOR whatever reason, James Courtney seems to land in Bathurst shootouts more often than not. A Blanchard car having a trot on Saturday arvo would be a surprise…
Will one marque dominate, or will there be parity in our time?
CRAILL: THE world is an ironic place. For all the issues recently surrounding crankshafts and having been very much routed at Sandown by the Triple Eight Camaro’s, this will be a Ford Mustang Bathurst win this year. There will be whinging, of course, but expect the margins between bowtie and blue oval to be negligible.
WALKER: NAH. The question marks over the Ford tilt this year are massive, especially in the engine department. They have only one win on the Mountain since 2015 – why would things turn around this year?
What would be your dream two-driver and team combo for Bathurst 2024?
CRAILL: JULES Gounon and Matt Campbell. They’ve won the last five Bathurst 12 Hours between them and are both supreme on the big hill. They’re also both remarkably adaptable to whatever it is they need to drive – Campbell switches between the 963 Hypercar and the 911 GT3R with zero issues, while Gounon switches his AMG GT3 for the Alpine Hypercar with ease. Gounon is unproven in a Supercar, but so was Mattias Ekstrom when he made his cameo and look what he did.
WALKER: Shane van Gisbergen and Max Verstappen. SvG is still on top of the game and quite good at Bathurst. Max has had a gutful of F1, F1 has probably had a gutful of him, but he is still probably the best driver in the world. Plug him in and fill up the media centre with international blow-ins.
Will reliability be a storyline?
CRAILL: IT already is, right? The attention to and last-ditch solution for Ford’s crankshaft issues are concerning going into the biggest race of the year – at a track where having more motor than the opposition is generally quite critical. Ford will be hoping all their issues are gone. And so will their teams, but this definitely falls under the banner of ‘far from ideal in race week’.
WALKER: IT can’t not be. Last year was a battle of the walking wounded; this year, the Ford camp will probably turn literally blue with their ongoing dramas.
How many cautions will there be?
CRAILL: FIVE either Safety Cars or Full Course Yellow’s, for probably 15 laps of the race.
WALKER: FOUR. It’s supposed to rain a little bit, right?
Who wins the pole position, and with what lap time?
CRAILL: MATT PAYNE will do the job in the Penrite Mustang. 2m05.1047
WALKER: WILL Brown, 2m04.8765.
What will the attendance be?
CRAILL: 201,976. Won’t quite reach the heights of the 60th anniversary race last year, but it’s still the biggest show around.
WALKER: 201,975, price is righting Craill. It pays to guess last…
Which support category will put on the best show?
CRAILL: I AM contractually obliged to say it will be Porsche Paynter Dixon Carrera Cup Australia – of course – but you can’t not be excited by the field his Historic Tourers assembled.. especially the Super Touring component. That’s going to be awesome.
WALKER: THE Historic Tourers won’t be as competitive as the others, but it will pack out the fenceline.
What’s your favourite Bathurst memory?
CRAILL: MY first Great Race was 2007, which for about 100 laps wasn’t much of a car race. But then the weather came in and the tension and atmosphere both cranked up to eleven, though that is possibly underselling it. From the Winterbottom off, the mass carnage at the top of the hill and the ultimately climactic battle between Steven Johnson and Craig Lowndes for the win – I’ll never forget the roar when the #17, if briefly, hit the front – it had it all. The subplots made it even better; Allan Simonsen being incredible in the second Vodafone Falcon late in the race as he and Richard Lyons charged to fifth. Steve Owen and Tony D sixth. Glenn Seton in a HRT Commodore! 2014 was more dramatic, yes, but 2007 remains one of the great, Great Race’s.
WALKER: BATHURST 2014 – it was the Worst and Greatest Race all rolled into one. My memories of it were written earlier.
Predict two Power Rankings HOTs.
CRAILL: THE RACE – last year probably left us a little flat, right? It wasn’t that good a race which we do need to remember, can happen. But Gen 3 has been very good this year, especially in the second half of the year, and the move back to the harder tyre should help the cause as well. I think this could be a craker.
TITLE BATTLE – TV Ratings. The 2024-spec version of measuring TV ratings has been very kind to live sport this year so I’m expecting a strong number for the Great Race. The late(ish) start time and the potential for drama should push the race into Sunday’s Prime Time so should reward Channel 7’s numbers. Unless Fox Sports put out a press release we won’t know their digits but they should be good. Supercars has had some wins of late – Perth street race, Toyota, expanding the calendar and more. But good ratings at Bathurst this year will go a long way to ensuring the critical next TV deal is a good one.
WALKER: 2014 was epic. 1994 was a classic with Lowndes Vs Bowe. 1984 saw the last of the Big Bangers. 1974 was the year Gossy and KB splashed their way to the win. 1964 witnessed Bob Jane complete his four-peat. Good years at Bathurst finish in “4”, so we’re due for a memorable one.
ClOSE FINISH – Two drivers absolutely taking it down to the wire, fingers crossed, this event deserves one.
Predict two Power Rankings NOTs.
CRAILL: CO DRIVER XYZ – There’s more pressure then ever before on the once per year ring ins and there’s a feeling that one of them is going to have a right barry and end up ending the day of a genuine contender.
A TEAM THAT SHOULD, DOESN’T – At Sandown it was WAU but there’ll be someone at Bathurst that will be a miss when they should be a hit, such is the variable nature of the competition this year.
WALKER – SKIPPY on track. I say it every bloody year, one year I will be right.
VETERAN CO-DRIVER CHOKES – Some big names stumbled at Sandown, others are lacking race miles. No pressure y’all…
When does the final pass for the lead happen?
CRAILL: LAP 159, and as much as I’d like to say it’ll be someone bombing it down the outside at Brock’s Skyline, the more likely exchange for the lead is the old over / under at Murray’s and then Hell Corner, followed by the drag race up Mountain Straight to Griffin’s. Here’s hoping.
WALKER: FINGERS crossed it’s bloody late. Is two cars boofing into each other over the finish line too much to ask?
Where and when will the key moment of the race occur?
CRAILL: THE START. Remember when the main drivers used to start? Remember when big names fell early – like Mark Skaife? Whether you like the call to force primary drivers to start or not isn’t the topic; the topic is what happens should one of them step out of line in the frantic early laps of the race and end their day before even the co driver gets behind the wheel. Feels like the chances of that happening are higher than ever.
WALKER: HOPEFULLY the finish. Two drivers nursing pigs at the finish. A boring afternoon at the racetrack can be salvaged with something special at the conclusion.
Who will win the 2024 Repco Bathurst 1000?
CRAILL: I’M HERE for an upset: Matt Payne and Garth Tander.
WALKER: BROWN/Pye. Pye just needs to do a competent lunch stint, Brown can bring it home.